芒格就危机首度发声:现在应谨慎行事,而不是积极行动

2020年04月20日 10:21  

本文7202字,约10分钟

精彩观点:当有史以来最严重的台风来临时,我们只想带着大量流动性走出台风,我们想把100%的现金留着去收购企业。

沃伦希望那些把90%资产都投资于伯克希尔的人资金是安全的,所以我们总是很小心,但这并不意味着我们不能做一些积极的操作或抓住一些机会,我们是相对保守的,但也会在市场有明确安全预期时进场。

在危机下,很多人的反映是被吓呆了。以航空公司为例,他们不知道该怎么办,但他们都在和政府谈判,没有人给沃伦打电话。

我们正在经历一场衰退,唯一的问题是它影响范围有多大,持续时间有多长,但我们确切知道这件事会过去。

我不认为我们会出现长期的大萧条,政府会采取积极的举措避免出现大萧条。但我们会进入一段混乱的时期,美联储的“印钞”行为会对我们有所困扰。

我认为,早晚经济将会复苏,那将会是温和的经济增长。就业水平很可能因为种种原因再也恢复不到疫情发生前的水平,我们永远也回不到之前的就业率水平了。

我不知道股市会不会创下新低。当前除了对新冠疫情带来的全国隔离顺其自然,还能做什么呢?


4月17日,《华尔街日报》记者Jason Zweig采访了采访了“股神”巴菲特的老搭档,伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格先生,对新冠疫情引发的全球危机、航空公司的求援以及经济萧条的幅度等话题进行了探讨。《红周刊》记者第一时间对此次报道的全文进行了编译,以飨读者。在采访中,芒格先生表示,虽然他建议大家大多数时间什么也不做,但在有“便宜货”的时候,伯克希尔会“积极”地加仓。而对于我们是否会走入一场大萧条?芒格表示,我们现在已经在萧条当中了,虽然会持续多久我们不能判断,但我可以确定地说,我们一定会度过这场危机。

以下是中英文对照全文:

Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

查理·芒格:“我和沃伦的电话没有响个不停”

If the coronavirus lockdown has frozen your investing plans, you’re in good company. Charlie Munger is watching and waiting, too.

如果新冠疫情使你的投资计划不得不暂时停止,你并不孤单,因为查理·芒格也在观望和等待。

Mr. Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, likes to say that one of the keys to great investing results is “sitting on your ass.” That means doing nothing the vast majority of the time, but buying with “aggression” when bargains abound.

芒格先生是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司副主席,是沃伦•巴菲特的长期商业伙伴,他喜欢说,取得成功的关键之一是“不要操作”,这意味着绝大多数时候什么也不做,而在有便宜货的时候“积极”地加仓。

I spoke this week by phone with Mr. Munger, who turned 96 years old on Jan. 1. He sounded as sharp and vigorous as ever, and as usual he drew bright lines between what he’s fairly certain of and what he thinks belongs in the “too-hard pile”—where he and Mr. Buffett consign questions they don’t know how to answer. Overall, Mr. Munger made it clear that he regards this as a time for caution rather than action.

我这周和芒格先生通了电话,他在今年1月1日时年满96岁,声音和以前一样清晰而且充满活力。与以往一样,他在确定性的事情和“比较难的事情”中间化了很清晰的界限,这也是他和巴菲特面对不知如何回答的问题时的惯常做法。总之,芒格非常明确地表示,现在应该谨慎行事,而不是采取行动。

In 2008-09, the years of the last financial crisis, Berkshire spent tens of billions of dollars investing in (among others) General Electric Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and buying Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. outright.

2008年至2009年,也就是上一次金融危机爆发的那几年,伯克希尔斥资数百亿美元投资于通用电气(General Electric Co.)、高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.),还收购了Burlington Northern Santa Fe 公司(本刊注:BNSF公司运营北美洲最大的铁路之一)。

以下是对话实录:

Will Berkshire step up now to buy businesses on the same scale?

伯克希尔·哈撒韦会像2008、2009年那样进行同样规模收购吗?

“Well, I would say basically we’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes,” Mr. Munger told me. “We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity. We’re not playing, ‘Oh goody, goody, everything’s going to hell, let’s plunge 100% of the reserves [into buying businesses].’”

“嗯,我想说,当有史以来最严重的台风来临时,我们就像一位船长。”芒格说到,“我们只想逃离台风,我们宁愿带着大量的流动性冲出去,我们很认真的对待,这不是闹着玩的。“哦,太好了,一切都要完蛋了,我们想把100%的现金留着去收购企业。”

He added, “Warren wants to keep Berkshire safe for people who have 90% of their net worth invested in it. We’re always going to be on the safe side. That doesn’t mean we couldn’t do something pretty aggressive or seize some opportunity. But basically we will be fairly conservative. And we’ll emerge on the other side very strong.”

他补充道:“为了那些把90%净资产都投资于伯克希尔的人,沃伦希望伯克希尔是安全的。我们总是站在安全的这一边,但这并不意味着我们不能做一些积极的操作或抓住一些机会。基本上,我们是相对保守的,但也会在市场有明确安全预期时进场。”

Surely hordes of corporate executives must be calling Berkshire begging for capital?

肯定有很多公司高管打电话给伯克希尔,想要你们投资吧?

“No, they aren’t,” said Mr. Munger. “The typical reaction is that people are frozen. Take the airlines. They don’t know what the hell’s doing. They’re all negotiating with the government, but they’re not calling Warren. They’re frozen. They’ve never seen anything like it. Their playbook does not have this as a possibility.”

“不,他们没有”,芒格说,“在危机下,人们最典型的反应是,好像都被吓住了。以航空公司为例,他们不知道该怎么办,他们都在和政府谈判,没有人给沃伦打电话。他们的生产活动被冻结了,他们从来没见过这样的事,他们也没想到过这种可能性。”

He repeated for emphasis, “Everybody’s just frozen. And the phone is not ringing off the hook. Everybody’s just frozen in the position they’re in.”

他重复了一遍,强调说:“所有人好像都被吓住了,而且我和沃伦的电话也没有响个不停,每个人好像被困在了原地。”

With Berkshire’s vast holdings in railroads, real estate, utilities, insurance and other industries, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger may have more and better data on U.S. economic activity than anyone else, with the possible exception of the Federal Reserve. But Mr. Munger wouldn’t even hazard a guess as to how long the downturn might last or how bad it could get.

伯克希尔在铁路、房地产、公用事业、保险和其他行业持有大量股份。巴菲特和芒格先生可能比其他人(除了美联储以外)有更多、更准确的关于美国经济的数据。但芒格也不敢猜测经济低迷会持续多久,或者会变得有多糟糕。

“Nobody in America’s ever seen anything else like this,” said Mr. Munger. “This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.”

“在美国,从来没有人见过这样的事情”,芒格说,“(疫情)与以往任何事情都不同。每个人都说他们知道会发生什么,但没有人知道会发生什么。”

Is another Great Depression possible?

可能会出现另一场大萧条吗?

“Of course we’re having a recession,” said Mr. Munger. “The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.”

“当然,我们正在经历一场衰退,”芒格说,“唯一的问题是它影响范围有多大,持续时间有多长,但我们确切地知道这件事会过去。而具体会造成多少损失、衰退的程度有多大、会持续多久却没有人知道。”

He added, “I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.”

他补充道:“我不认为我们会出现长期的大萧条,政府会采取积极的举措避免出现大萧条。但我们会进入一段混乱的时期,美联储的‘印钞’行为会对我们有所困扰。”

Can the government reduce its role in the economy once the virus is under control?

如果病毒得到控制,政府会降低其在经济中的干预作用吗?

“I don’t think we know exactly what the macroeconomic consequences are going to be,” said Mr. Munger. “I do think, sooner or later, we’ll have an economy back, which will be a moderate economy. It’s quite possible that never again—not again in a long time—will we have a level of employment again like we just lost. We may never get that back for all practical purposes. I don’t know.”

“我们并不确切地知道会有哪些宏观经济的后果,”芒格说,“但我认为,早晚经济将会复苏,那将会是温和的经济增长。就业水平很可能再也恢复不到疫情发生前的水平,可能因为种种原因,我们永远也回不到之前的就业率水平了,我不知道。”

Berkshire won’t escape unscathed. “This will cause us to shutter some businesses,” Mr. Munger said. “We have a few bad businesses that...we could be tolerant of as members of the family. Somebody else would have already shut them down. We’ve got a few businesses, small ones, we won’t reopen when this is over.”

伯克希尔不会毫发无损,芒格说:“这场危机会使我们关闭一些业务。我们有一些经营不善的生意……作为(伯克希尔)家族企业中的一员,我们可以容忍(它们),但如果是其他企业,则已经被关闭了。我们有一些规模小的企业,关闭后将不会再开业了。”

Mr. Munger told me: “I don’t have the faintest idea whether the stock market is going to go lower than the old lows or whether it’s not.” The coronavirus shutdown is “something we have to live through,” letting the chips fall where they may, he said. “What else can you do?”

芒格先生告诉我:“我完全不知道股市会不会创下新低。”他说,因为冠状病毒带来的全国隔离是我们必须要做的事情,只能顺其自然了。“你还能做什么呢?”

Investors can take a few small steps to restore a sense of control—by harvesting tax losses, for instance—but, for now, sitting still alongside Mr. Munger seems the wisest course.

投资者目前可以通过小幅的操作来恢复控制感,但是,就目前而言,和芒格先生保持一致似乎是最明智的做法。

来源:证券市场红周刊

更多相关评论 
打开财经APP, 阅读有价值的财经新闻
相关新闻
热门推荐