Are Businesses Ready for Deglobalization?

正当我们进入一个以经济复杂性和地缘政治分歧，以及逐渐逼近的全球衰退风险——日益加剧为特征的新的十年之际，具有前瞻性思维的企业领袖正在制定策略，以降低去全球化的长期风险。他们对贸易保护主义以及企业在任何关税战中可能损失的收入感到担忧。

As we enter a new decade, characterized by rising economic complexity and geopolitical divisions — U.S.-China tensions, populism and nationalism in Europe, and the looming risk of a global recession — forward-thinking business leaders are developing strategies to mitigate the longer-term risk of deglobalization. They are concerned about trade protectionism, and the revenue a company could lose in any tariff wars.

然而，与去全球化相关的还有一个更为隐蔽的风险：全球性企业的构成方式不适合在去全球化的世界里实现竞争的目的。人们越来越意识到，这个日渐封闭的世界直接影响到全球性企业的三大支柱：技术、全球招聘和财务职能。

However, there is a more hidden risk associated with deglobalization: that global corporations are not structured in a way that is fit for purpose to compete in a deglobalizing world. It is increasingly understood that this ever-more siloed world directly impacts three key pillars of global corporations: technology, global recruiting, and the finance function.

“碎片网络”

The “Splinternet”

近年来，企业领导层正确地优先考虑了网络风险、技术过时的威胁以及自动化程度提高引起的无业下层阶级的增加。然而，现在人们越来越担心的是新出现的“碎片网络”——因平台竞争而日渐支离破碎的互联网。

In recent years corporate leadership has rightly prioritized cyber risks, the threat of technological obsolescence, and the rise of the jobless underclass stemming from increased automation. However, there are now mounting concerns about the emerging “splinternet” — an increasingly fragmented internet with competing China-led and U.S.-led platforms.

这种技术碎片化会破坏全球供应链——全球供应链使全球企业能够在生产过程的每一个阶段选择最具成本效益的解决方案，从而获得竞争优势。脱离这种集中采购的做法会增加共享全球服务的成本，降低它的效率增益。

Such a technological fragmentation would disrupt global supply chains — which enable global corporations to gain a competitive edge by selecting the most cost-effective solution at each stage of the production process. And the move away from such centralized procurement raises the costs of and reduces the efficiency gains from shared global services.

此外，分裂的互联网一定会增加企业运营的复杂性，这会削弱企业对市场力量进行快速响应的能力。在这样的世界里，企业需要在阵营之间做出选择，或者承受在两个敌对技术世界里运营的成本，每个世界都有它们自己的监管和运营标准。

Furthermore, a balkanized internet promises to increase the complexity of a company’s operations, which erodes a corporation’s ability to respond quickly to market forces. In such a world, companies will need to choose between the U.S. and China camps or bear the costs of operating in two adversarial technological worlds, each with their own regulatory and operating standards.

已经让各家企业感受到的这种分歧的最初迹象涉及数据隐私问题。多数西方企业会尽一切努力来保护个人隐私——这一立场可以说让美国和欧洲的企业在与它们的竞争对手的对垒中处于明显的不利地位。相对宽松的数字隐私规则允许访问具有更多个人信息的大型数据集。这可以加速创新，其中包括尖端药物的研发，这反过来又有助于降低最终消费者的花费，推高企业的价值观。

Already, the first signs of such divergence are being felt across corporations concerning the issue of data privacy. Most western companies make every effort to protect individual privacy — a stance that arguably places U.S. and European corporations at a distinct disadvantage versus their Chinese competitors, who are able to operate in a less stringent data privacy regime. The relatively light data-privacy rules in China enable access to large data sets with more individual information. This can speed up innovation, including cutting-edge drug discovery, which in turn helps push costs down for the end consumers and drive higher company values.

愈演愈烈的人才争夺战

The Intensifying War for Talent

加强移民控制是走向更加封闭世界过程中出现的另一个衍生物。美国和欧洲最近在政治情绪上转向更严格的移民政策，加剧了全球人才争夺战。进一步限制移民的风险在领导层的议程上已经上升到更加重要的地位，因为它威胁到企业跨境招聘的能力。

Greater immigration controls are another offshoot of the move toward a more siloed world. The recent shift in the political mood in the U.S. and Europe toward more stringent immigration intensifies the war for global talent. The risk of further restrictions on immigration has climbed in importance on the leadership agenda as it threatens the corporation’s ability to hire across borders.

人才招聘，特别是高级人才招聘，取决于是否可以获取全球人才库的资源，因为那些吸纳不同国籍和背景的高管团队被广泛地视为竞争优势的来源。在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)2017年4月发布“购买美国货、雇用美国人(Buy American and Hire American)”的行政命令之后，美国公民及移民事务局(U.S.Citizenship and Immigration Services )的H-1B签证申请数量创了纪录，以至于初次申请H-1B签证的拒签率从2016年的10%上升到了2018年的24%，2019年第一季度又上升到32%。

Recruitment, particularly at senior levels, depends on access to global pools of talent, as those executive teams that draw on different nationalities and backgrounds are widely seen as a source of competitive advantage. In the wake of President Donald Trump’s April 2017 executive order to “Buy American and Hire American,” the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has held up record numbers of H-1B visa petitions, so that the denial rate for first time H-1B applications has increased from 10 percent in 2016 to 24 percent in 2018 and 32 percent in the first quarter of 2019.

越来越多的移民限制条件限制了未来的企业领袖学习如何跨越文化和不同的社会规范进行管理的机会。有人可能会说，在一个更加封闭的世界里，这些技能不那么重要了，可是一个更加支离破碎的世界也意味着分享和传播最优方法和变革思想的机会变得更少。

Mounting restrictions on immigration limit the opportunity for tomorrow’s business leaders to learn how to navigate across cultures and differing social norms. Some might argue that these skills will matter less in a more siloed world, but a more fragmented world also means fewer opportunities to share and transfer best practices and transformational ideas.

更加复杂的财务与监管制度

More Complicated Corporate Finances and Regulatory Regimes

更加支离破碎的世界也让企业财务的全球化管理更加复杂，并给企业财务部门增加了可观的成本。全球企业从集中的财务职能中获得了巨大好处。今天，许多企业可以在纽约或伦敦等金融中心以相对低廉的成本募集资金，将收益作为投资在它们的全球业务中进行分配。在多数情况下，这种更为集中的模式意味着相比于区域或国家子公司不得不将自己局限于通常具有更大风险和波动性的当地货币市场的情形，企业能够以更低成本借款。一个更加封闭的世界意味着企业将难以提取他们的投资资本并将利润返还给股东。

A more fragmented world also makes managing corporate finances globally more complicated and adds considerable costs to corporate treasuries. Global companies derive enormous benefits from a centralized finance function. Today many companies raise capital relatively cheaply in financial hubs, such as New York or London, and distribute the proceeds as investment across their global operations. In most cases, this more centralized model means corporations are able to borrow at a lower cost than they would if their regional and national subsidiaries had to confine themselves to local currency markets, which tend to carry greater risk and volatility. A more siloed world means corporations will struggle to extract their investment capital and return profits to shareholders.

从更为集中的模式转变为更具联合性质的模式带来了更多的复杂性，因为企业领袖必须应对从协调一致的规则制定业务环境，转变到不同司法管辖区中日益复杂的独立程序与规章网络。欲想在一个封闭的世界里合理地管理或减轻威胁，那就需要在地方层面拥有非凡水平的高度专业化的知识——这使人几乎不可能了解必要的风险预算，更不必说充分地对冲这些地方风险了。

The shift from a more centralized to a more federated model brings additional complexity, as business leaders must contend with the move from a harmonized rule-making business landscape towards an increasingly complicated web of independent processes and regulations in different jurisdictions. To reasonably manage or mitigate threats in a siloed world will require extraordinary levels of highly specialized knowledge at the local level — making it near impossible to understand the necessary risk budget, let alone adequately hedge these local risks.

随着权力继续从欧盟(EU)、世界贸易组织(WTO)和北约(NATO)等多边组织转移到地方政府手中，全球企业可能会发现，在众多不同国家维持有效的政府关系将愈加困难。比如，税收、关税、配额以及环境法规等问题上复杂性的日益增加，将迫使全球企业应对这样一个问题：它们的企业结构是否应该跟随权力变化而变得更加分散。

As power continues to move away from multilateral organizations such as the EU, WTO, and NATO and devolves to local governments, global corporations will likely find it harder to maintain effective government relations across a myriad of different countries. Growing complexity on matters of taxation, tariffs, quotas, and environmental regulations, for example, will force global corporations to contend with the question of whether their organization structure ought to follow the power shift and become more diffused.

当然，跨国企业已经需要遵守它们经营活动所在市场的各种规章制度，因而需要深入了解当地情况才能有效运作。然而，由于保护主义导致各国政府对全球规则和条例的认同度降低，加上业务规则的系统化程度减弱，国家监管机构将拥有最大的权力。到时候，了解当地情况的要求几乎肯定会变得更加苛刻，因为企业需要更加详细具体的知识经验才能运作并取得成功。

Of course, multinationals already need to abide by the various regulations of the markets in which they operate, and therefore require deep local knowledge in order to be effective.  However, as protectionism leads governments to subscribe less to global rules and regulations, and business rules become less systematized, national regulatory bodies will become paramount.  In turn, local knowledge requirements will almost certainly become more demanding as corporations will need ever more detailed and specific know-how to operate and succeed.

重新考虑组织架构？

Do We Need to Rethink Org Structures?

就其本质而言，全球企业的基本原理是：这样的一种架构会增加那些身处企业顶层的人观察世界的机会，并以降低成本、提升效率的方式套利资本、劳动力和生产，从而提高企业的内在价值。由于跨境转移这些生产要素的难度越来越大，人们有理由问一问，全球企业在一个去全球化的世界里是否是一种合适的结构。此外，消费品和金融等行业的全球企业发现，最激烈的竞争来自当地国家或区域竞争对手，而不是其他传统的全球企业。

At its core, the rationale for global corporations is that such a structure would increase the opportunity of those that sit atop these organizations to observe the world and arbitrage capital, labor, and production in ways that lower costs, increase efficiencies, and thereby enhance the inherent value of the corporation. As it is becoming increasingly difficult to transfer these factors of production across borders, it’s reasonable to ask whether a global corporation is the right structure in a deglobalizing world. Furthermore, global corporations across such sectors as consumer goods and finance are seeing their fiercest competition come from large local country or regional competitors rather than other traditional global companies.

全球架构的一种替代选择是，企业以独立的、松散关联的本地运营公司集合体的身份来运营。这些“子公司”会因附属于更大的公司网络而获得知识转移的好处，不过多数资本分配和人力资本的决策都下放给了当地实体。或许这些独立的公司甚至可以作为独立的实体在本地和全球交易所上市交易。

One alternative to a global structure is for businesses to operate as a collection of independent, loosely affiliated, locally run companies. These “subsidiaries” would garner the benefits of knowledge transfer from being affiliates to a larger network of companies, but most capital allocation and human capital decisions are delegated to the local entities. Perhaps these independent companies could even list and trade as independent entities on local as well as global exchanges.

最终，未来的道路取决于企业的领导层将去全球化看作是持久现象还是一时风尚。如果企业领导人认为去全球化会继续存在，那么真的必须考虑要颠覆时下盛行的全球企业架构，使其更好地适应去全球化的世界。然而，如果企业领导人认为走向一个更支离破碎的世界是暂时的现象，很快就会过去，那么他们的职责就是把控去全球化风险，即便是在保持它们的全球性架构的时候。不过，企业领导人应该意识到，如果他们错了，他们服务的企业可能无法生存。

Ultimately, the way forward will depend on whether a company’s leadership views deglobalization as an enduring phenomenon or a passing fad. If business leaders believe deglobalization is here to stay, then real consideration must be placed on upending the prevailing global corporate structure to make it better match the deglobalized world. If, however, corporate leaders believe that the push toward a more fragmented world is temporary and will soon pass, then their responsibility is to navigate the deglobalization risks, even while retaining their global structure. Nevertheless, business leaders should be alert to the idea that if they are wrong, the corporations they serve may not survive.

丹比萨·莫约（Dambisa Moyo） | 文　时青靖 | 编辑

丹比萨·莫约是一名国际经济学家，在巴克莱银行(Barclays Bank)、雪佛龙(Chevron)、Barrick Gold和希捷科技(Seagate Technology)的董事会任职。