Entrepreneurs and economists interpret the tariff battle be in April as a concentrated outbreak of structural tensions between China and the US. They are watching closely: Will the two superpowers fall into the Thucydides Trap? How will the US reconcile reducing its trade deficit with maintaining the dollar’s global dominance—known as the Triffin Dilemma? Will we see the emergence of Parallel Globalisation or a new cold war between China and the US?
What will happen after the 90-day trade negotiation window? No one knows for sure. According to Zhu Haibin, Chief China Economist at J.P. Morgan, tariff developments remain highly uncertain during this suspension period. On one hand, there is hope that the US might further reduce the 20% tariff imposed on Chinese fentanyl before April. On the other hand, the scope and complexity of China–US negotiations should not be underestimated. The suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days does not mean they won’t return.
Zhang Yansheng, a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, told Caijing that while the tariff war may appear to be a trade dispute, it actually signals a need for both superpowers to look inward and pursue deeper reform. The US launched the tariff war to address its internal contradictions. Likewise, China must face complex challenges such as boosting domestic demand and sharing its market more broadly with other nations.
