「释义」

牛鞭效应指的是客户为了补偿供应的不确定性而超额订货，这种做法随着供应链的发展而变得更加夸张。

Bullwhip effect refers to where a customer over-orders to compensate for supply uncertainty and this practice becomes more exaggerated as one progresses along the supply chain.

「应用场景」

开发供应链弹性投资贴现现金流所需的关键数据很难获得，而且往往不准确。一个主要问题是如何获得高质量的TTR（所需恢复时间）数据。

The key data required to develop the discounted cash flow of a supply-chain-resilience investment is difficult to access and often inaccurate. A primary problem is deriving high-quality TTR(time to recovery ) data.

收集这些数据需要对每个供应商，而不仅仅是第一级供应商，进行详细分析，。当一个公司的网络中有几百甚至几千个供应商时，这是一项不切实际的任务。此外，供应商的TTR可能会随着时间的推移而变化，这取决于恢复丧失能力所需的材料和系统的供需动态。近年来，由于供应商难以应对需求的巨大波动和牛鞭效应的变幻莫测，这种变化非常严重。

Collecting this data requires a detailed analysis of each supplier, not just Tier 1 suppliers. When a firm has hundreds, if not thousands, of suppliers in its network, this is an impractical task. Moreover, a supplier’s TTR likely changes over time based on the supply and demand dynamics of materials and systems required to restore lost capacities. This variability has been extreme over recent years as suppliers have struggled to cope with huge swings in demand and the vagaries of the bullwhip effect.

本文节选自 Overcoming the Financial Barriers to Building Resilient Supply Chains

小詹姆斯·赖斯(James B. Rice Jr)、瓦利德·卡里比(Walid Klibi)、卡伊·特批特(Kai Trepte) | 文